Treasury Yields Under Democrats and Republicans
Since 1962, counting every trading day by who was in the White House, the 10-year Treasury yield has fallen by 0.26 percentage points a year under Republican presidents and risen by 0.31 a year under Democratic ones. It rose under 2 of 7 Republican presidencies and 5 of 6 Democratic presidencies. Party matters less than the timing: yields climbed for two decades to a peak of 15.84% in September 1981, fell for almost four decades to 0.50% in March 2020, and have risen since — across presidents of both parties.
10-year yield daily from Jan 2, 1962 to Nov 2, 2026 (latest 4.91%); 2-year from 1976; 3-month bill from 1954
Treasury yields and who was in charge, since 1962
Yields by Who Controlled Washington
Each day's change credited to whoever held office that day, summed and divided by the years under each setup, in percentage points (pp) a year.
| Setup | Years | 10-year a year | 2-year a year | 3-month bill a year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| President | ||||
| Democratic president | 31 | +0.31 pp | +0.53 pp | +0.67 pp |
| Republican president | 34 | −0.26 pp | −0.58 pp | −0.46 pp |
| House of Representatives | ||||
| Democratic House | 41 | +0.09 pp | −0.07 pp | +0.03 pp |
| Republican House | 24 | −0.12 pp | −0.03 pp | +0.04 pp |
| Senate | ||||
| Democratic Senate | 41 | +0.22 pp | +0.18 pp | +0.21 pp |
| Republican Senate | 24 | −0.34 pp | −0.31 pp | −0.28 pp |
| Government | ||||
| Democrats held the White House, House and Senate | 17 | +0.71 pp | +1.48 pp | +1.16 pp |
| Republicans held all three | 8 | +0.15 pp | +0.49 pp | +0.39 pp |
| Divided government | 40 | −0.31 pp | −0.65 pp | −0.47 pp |
| — Democratic president, Republican Congress | 8 | −0.31 pp | −0.27 pp | +0.08 pp |
| — Republican president, Democratic Congress | 16 | −0.10 pp | −0.83 pp | −0.34 pp |
| — House and Senate held by different parties | 16 | −0.53 pp | −0.75 pp | −0.92 pp |
Every President
Yields on inauguration day and on the last day in office (current president: to date).
| President | Party | In office | 10-year | Change | 2-year | 3-month bill |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donald Trump now | R | Jan 2025 – today | 4.61% → 4.91% | +0.30 pp | +0.32 pp | −0.17 pp |
| Joe Biden | D | Jan 2021 – Jan 2025 | 1.09% → 4.61% | +3.52 pp | +4.14 pp | +4.12 pp |
| Donald Trump | R | Jan 2017 – Jan 2021 | 2.48% → 1.09% | −1.39 pp | −1.07 pp | −0.41 pp |
| Barack Obama | D | Jan 2009 – Jan 2017 | 2.40% → 2.48% | +0.08 pp | +0.47 pp | +0.36 pp |
| George W. Bush | R | Jan 2001 – Jan 2009 | 5.19% → 2.40% | −2.79 pp | −4.02 pp | −4.97 pp |
| Bill Clinton | D | Jan 1993 – Jan 2001 | 6.61% → 5.19% | −1.42 pp | +0.34 pp | +2.09 pp |
| George H. W. Bush | R | Jan 1989 – Jan 1993 | 9.03% → 6.61% | −2.42 pp | −4.72 pp | −5.23 pp |
| Ronald Reagan | R | Jan 1981 – Jan 1989 | 12.50% → 9.03% | −3.47 pp | −4.35 pp | −7.08 pp |
| Jimmy Carter | D | Jan 1977 – Jan 1981 | 7.26% → 12.50% | +5.24 pp | +7.47 pp | +10.69 pp |
| Gerald Ford | R | Aug 1974 – Jan 1977 | 8.03% → 7.26% | −0.77 pp | −1.25 pp | −4.30 pp |
| Richard Nixon | R | Jan 1969 – Aug 1974 | 5.95% → 8.03% | +2.08 pp | — | +2.92 pp |
| Lyndon Johnson | D | Nov 1963 – Jan 1969 | 4.09% → 5.95% | +1.86 pp | — | +2.52 pp |
| John F. Kennedy | D | Jan 1961 – Nov 1963 | 4.06% → 4.09% from Jan 1962 | +0.03 pp | — | +1.27 pp |
| Dwight Eisenhower | R | Jan 1953 – Jan 1961 | — | — | — | +0.89 pp |
Every Congress
Each two-year Congress from 3 January, with the majorities at the start.
| Congress | Years | President | House | Senate | 10-year | 3-month bill |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 119th now | 2025–2026 | Joe Biden, Donald Trump | R | R | +0.31 pp | −0.17 pp |
| 118th | 2023–2025 | Joe Biden | R | D | +0.80 pp | −0.20 pp |
| 117th | 2021–2023 | Donald Trump, Joe Biden | D | D * | +2.88 pp | +4.31 pp |
| 116th | 2019–2021 | Donald Trump | D | R | −1.64 pp | −2.27 pp |
| 115th | 2017–2019 | Barack Obama, Donald Trump | R | R | +0.10 pp | +1.83 pp |
| 114th | 2015–2017 | Barack Obama | R | R | +0.33 pp | +0.51 pp |
| 113th | 2013–2015 | Barack Obama | R | D | +0.20 pp | −0.06 pp |
| 112th | 2011–2013 | Barack Obama | R | D | −1.44 pp | −0.07 pp |
| 111th | 2009–2011 | George W. Bush, Barack Obama | D | D | +0.90 pp | +0.07 pp |
| 110th | 2007–2009 | George W. Bush | D | D | −2.21 pp | −4.84 pp |
| 109th | 2005–2007 | George W. Bush | R | R | +0.44 pp | +2.63 pp |
| 108th | 2003–2005 | George W. Bush | R | R | +0.18 pp | +1.09 pp |
| 107th | 2001–2003 | Bill Clinton, George W. Bush | R | R * | −1.09 pp | −4.33 pp |
| 106th | 1999–2001 | Bill Clinton | R | R | +0.49 pp | +1.16 pp |
| 105th | 1997–1999 | Bill Clinton | R | R | −1.87 pp | −0.67 pp |
| 104th | 1995–1997 | Bill Clinton | R | R | −1.36 pp | −0.49 pp |
| 103rd | 1993–1995 | George H. W. Bush, Bill Clinton | D | D | +1.18 pp | +2.45 pp |
| 102nd | 1991–1993 | George H. W. Bush | D | D | −1.23 pp | −3.36 pp |
| 101st | 1989–1991 | Ronald Reagan, George H. W. Bush | D | D | −1.30 pp | −1.70 pp |
| 100th | 1987–1989 | Ronald Reagan | D | D | +2.05 pp | +2.59 pp |
| 99th | 1985–1987 | Ronald Reagan | D | R | −4.44 pp | −2.25 pp |
| 98th | 1983–1985 | Ronald Reagan | D | R | +1.30 pp | −0.12 pp |
| 97th | 1981–1983 | Jimmy Carter, Ronald Reagan | D | R | −2.10 pp | −6.73 pp |
| 96th | 1979–1981 | Jimmy Carter | D | D | +3.26 pp | +5.34 pp |
| 95th | 1977–1979 | Gerald Ford, Jimmy Carter | D | D | +2.32 pp | +4.92 pp |
| 94th | 1975–1977 | Gerald Ford | D | D | −0.59 pp | −2.37 pp |
| 93rd | 1973–1975 | Richard Nixon, Gerald Ford | D | D | +1.01 pp | +1.60 pp |
| 92nd | 1971–1973 | Richard Nixon | D | D | −0.08 pp | +0.31 pp |
| 91st | 1969–1971 | Lyndon Johnson, Richard Nixon | D | D | +0.49 pp | −1.28 pp |
| 90th | 1967–1969 | Lyndon Johnson | D | D | +1.32 pp | +1.29 pp |
| 89th | 1965–1967 | Lyndon Johnson | D | D | +0.48 pp | +1.02 pp |
| 88th | 1963–1965 | John F. Kennedy, Lyndon Johnson | D | D | +0.40 pp | +0.96 pp |
| 87th | 1961–1963 | Dwight Eisenhower, John F. Kennedy | D | D | −0.25 pp | +0.56 pp |
What Really Moves Yields
Short-term yields follow the Federal Reserve's policy rate. Longer yields add what investors expect for inflation and growth, plus a premium for lending for ten years — which can rise with heavy government borrowing. Elections matter mostly through budgets and how they change those expectations.
The long arc dominates this data: yields rose through the inflation of the 1960s and 1970s to a peak of 15.84% in September 1981, as the Fed under Paul Volcker fought inflation; fell for almost four decades as inflation came down, to 0.50% in March 2020 during the pandemic; and rose again with the inflation surge of 2021–22 and the Fed's fastest rate increases in decades.
Why It Matters for Silver
Silver pays no interest, so higher yields — especially inflation-adjusted (real) yields — raise the cost of holding it and have often weighed on its price, while falling yields have tended to help. See silver vs real yields, the Fed funds rate, the US dollar under Democrats and Republicans and silver after US elections.
Treasury Yields and Politics FAQ
Do interest rates rise more under Republican or Democratic presidents?
Since 1962, the 10-year Treasury yield changed by −0.26 pp a year under Republican presidents and +0.31 pp a year under Democratic presidents; it rose under 2 of 7 Republican presidencies and 5 of 6 Democratic presidencies (presidencies of at least a year). Those averages mostly reflect when each president served: yields rose for two decades to their 1981 peak and fell for almost four decades after it.
Does it matter who controls Congress?
With a Democratic House the 10-year yield changed by +0.09 pp a year, with a Republican House −0.12 pp; with a Democratic Senate +0.22 pp, with a Republican Senate −0.34 pp. Divided government: −0.31 pp a year.
What happened to yields when a Republican president faced a Democratic Congress?
That setup — the one that begins in January 2027 after Democrats won both chambers in the November 2026 midterms — covered 1955–1957, 1957–1959, 1959–1961, 1969–1971, 1971–1973, 1973–1975, 1975–1977, 1987–1989, 1989–1991, 1991–1993, 2007–2009. Over those years the 10-year yield changed by −0.10 pp a year in total. The periods had very different backgrounds, so it is not a forecast.
Who sets interest rates?
The Federal Reserve sets its policy rate, which short-term yields such as the 3-month bill follow closely; longer yields like the 10-year also reflect expected inflation, growth and the supply of Treasury debt. Fed chairs have been appointed and reappointed across party lines: Paul Volcker by Carter and then Reagan, Alan Greenspan by Reagan and then Clinton, Ben Bernanke by Bush and then Obama, and Jerome Powell by Trump and then Biden.
How is this calculated?
Every day's change in each yield, in percentage points, is credited to whoever held the White House, the House and the Senate that day, then added up and divided by the years under that setup. Party control uses the exact dates, including the 50–50 Senates of 2001 and 2021. Yields are Federal Reserve H.15 constant-maturity Treasury yields (10-year and 2-year) and the 3-month Treasury bill rate.
Yields: Federal Reserve H.15 via FRED (10-year and 2-year constant-maturity Treasury yields, 3-month Treasury bill secondary-market rate). Party control from the House and Senate historical records. This page describes the past; it is not a forecast, a political endorsement or investment advice.
Cite this page
For essays, articles and research. Prices on this page update daily, so the citations include today's date as the date you accessed it.
@misc{corgano2026treasuryyieldsunderdemocrats, author = {{Corgano}}, title = {Treasury Yields Under Democrats and Republicans}, howpublished = {\url{https://silverprice.corgano.com/treasury-yields-under-democrats-and-republicans}}, year = {2026}, note = {Corgano Silver Price, accessed 2026-11-04}}