What happens to silver after US midterm elections?
Since 1970, silver was higher 3 months after US midterm elections in 9 of 14 cases (64%), with a median move of +6.8% and an average of +5.3%. Over all 3-month periods since 1970, it rose 52% of the time, with a median of +0.6%. The next day it was higher in 9 of 14 cases (median +0.6%).
Silver After Midterm Elections: Summary
Move from the close before the event. "All days" is every trading day since 1970, for comparison.
| 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 3 months | 6 months | 12 months | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cases | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 |
| Median | +0.6% | +1.5% | −0.3% | +6.8% | +7.8% | +6.3% |
| Average | +0.6% | +1.7% | +0.1% | +5.3% | +16.8% | +16.4% |
| Higher in | 64% (9/14) | 64% (9/14) | 43% (6/14) | 64% (9/14) | 79% (11/14) | 64% (9/14) |
| Best | +5.1% Nov 5, 1974 | +14.6% Nov 2, 2010 | +15.4% Nov 2, 2010 | +34.7% Nov 2, 1982 | +95.5% Nov 2, 2010 | +186.2% Nov 7, 1978 |
| Worst | −4.7% Nov 4, 2014 | −4.5% Nov 6, 2018 | −11.1% Nov 5, 1974 | −12.3% Nov 5, 1974 | −7.7% Nov 3, 1970 | −28.5% Nov 3, 1970 |
| All days: median | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.6% | +1.1% | +2.3% |
| All days: higher in | 51% | 51% | 51% | 52% | 53% | 53% |
Periods overlap when events are close together (for example a run of cuts six weeks apart), so the 6- and 12-month figures share much of the same price history.
Average path over the next 3 months
% from the close before the event, average of all casesBreakdown
Median move and how often silver was higher, by type of case.
| Cases | n | 1 day | 1 month | 3 months | 12 months |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All midterm elections | 14 | +0.6% 64% up | −0.3% 43% up | +6.8% 64% up | +6.3% 64% up |
| Midterms: House changed hands | 5 | +0.4% 60% up | +9.4% 60% up | +7.1% 80% up | +14.5% 100% up |
| Midterms: House did not change hands | 9 | +1.2% 67% up | −0.6% 33% up | +6.5% 56% up | −1.7% 44% up |
Every Case
Midterm elections since 1970, newest first. Silver price is the close before the event (US dollars per ounce).
| Date | Event | Silver before | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 3 months | 6 months | 12 months |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8, 2022 | Midterms under President Joe Biden (Democrat); Republicans won the House and Democrats kept the Senate Array | $20.90 | +1.9% | +2.9% | +10.4% | +5.7% | +16.1% | +9.2% |
| Nov 6, 2018 | Midterms under President Donald Trump (Republican); Democrats won the House and Republicans kept the Senate Array | $14.60 | −0.5% | −4.5% | −0.2% | +8.0% | +0.8% | +16.2% |
| Nov 4, 2014 | Midterms under President Barack Obama (Democrat); Republicans kept the House and won the Senate Array | $16.26 | −4.7% | −3.3% | +2.0% | +6.5% | +0.9% | −2.3% |
| Nov 2, 2010 | Midterms under President Barack Obama (Democrat); Republicans won the House and Democrats kept the Senate Array | $24.91 | +0.4% | +14.6% | +15.4% | +7.1% | +95.5% | +27.3% |
| Nov 7, 2006 | Midterms under President George W. Bush (Republican); Democrats won the House and Senate Array | $12.51 | +0.8% | +2.7% | +9.4% | +9.2% | +8.1% | +14.5% |
| Nov 5, 2002 | Midterms under President George W. Bush (Republican); Republicans kept the House and won the Senate Array | $4.45 | +0.4% | +2.7% | +2.7% | +9.0% | +7.9% | +14.4% |
| Nov 3, 1998 | Midterms under President Bill Clinton (Democrat); Republicans kept the House and Senate | $5.04 | −2.2% | −0.8% | −3.2% | +9.9% | +7.7% | +3.4% |
| Nov 8, 1994 | Midterms under President Bill Clinton (Democrat); Republicans won the House and Senate Array | $5.23 | −0.5% | −0.3% | −10.3% | −9.5% | +2.7% | 0.0% |
| Nov 6, 1990 | Midterms under President George H. W. Bush (Republican); Democrats kept the House and Senate | $4.18 | +1.2% | +0.8% | −0.6% | −8.7% | −2.7% | −1.7% |
| Nov 4, 1986 | Midterms under President Ronald Reagan (Republican); Democrats kept the House and won the Senate Array | $5.63 | +2.0% | +2.0% | −5.6% | −2.2% | +43.9% | +19.8% |
| Nov 2, 1982 | Midterms under President Ronald Reagan (Republican); Democrats kept the House and Republicans kept the Senate | $10.18 | +2.7% | −0.4% | −0.4% | +34.7% | +22.2% | −17.8% |
| Nov 7, 1978 | Midterms under President Jimmy Carter (Democrat); Democrats kept the House and Senate | $5.78 | +1.9% | +1.4% | +1.1% | +26.5% | +45.0% | +186.2% |
| Nov 5, 1974 | Midterms under President Gerald Ford (Republican); Democrats kept the House and Senate | $4.71 | +5.1% | +4.0% | −11.1% | −12.3% | −5.7% | −10.8% |
| Nov 3, 1970 | Midterms under President Richard Nixon (Republican); Democrats kept the House and Senate | $1.80 | −0.2% | +1.6% | −8.0% | −10.4% | −7.7% | −28.5% |
Why midterm elections matter for silver
Elections can change what investors expect for taxes, government spending and debt, trade, regulation and the Federal Reserve's leadership. But polls and betting markets mean much of the result is usually priced in before the vote, the moves after one night mix election news with everything else, and with one election every two years the sample is small. The figures describe what silver did, not what the result caused.
These are historical figures, not a forecast: past reactions don't predict future prices, and each case happened in a different economy. Not financial advice.
FAQ
What happens to silver after US midterm elections?
Since 1970, silver was higher 3 months after US midterm elections in 9 of 14 cases (64%), with a median move of +6.8% and an average of +5.3%. Over all 3-month periods since 1970, it rose 52% of the time, with a median of +0.6%. The next day it was higher in 9 of 14 cases (median +0.6%).
Does silver always go up after US midterm elections?
No. Three months later it was lower in 5 of 14 cases; the worst was −12.3% after November 5, 1974 and the best +34.7% after November 2, 1982. Other forces, such as the dollar, real yields, inflation, crises and central-bank buying, often matter more than the event itself.
What did silver do after the most recent case?
After midterms under President Joe Biden (Democrat); Republicans won the House and Democrats kept the Senate on November 8, 2022, silver moved +1.9% by the next day, +10.4% after a month and +5.7% after three months.
When is the next US election?
The midterm elections, for all 435 seats in the House of Representatives and about a third of the Senate, will be held on Tuesday, November 3, 2026. US federal elections fall on the Tuesday after the first Monday in November in even-numbered years.
How are these figures calculated?
Each move runs from silver's last daily close before the event to its close 1, 5, 21, 63, 126 and 252 trading days after the event day (1 day, 1 week and 1, 3, 6 and 12 months). The "1 day" figure therefore covers the event day and the next session, when election results are usually known. "All days" applies the same periods to every trading day since 1970, as a baseline.