What happens to silver after it falls 5% in a day?
Since 1968, silver was higher 3 months after a one-day fall of 5% or more in 123 of 234 cases (53%), with a median move of +1.3% and an average of +0.7%. Over all 3-month periods since 1968, it rose 52% of the time, with a median of +0.5%. The next day it was higher in 132 of 236 cases (median +0.4%).
Cases since 1968
237
5% one-day drops
After 1 day (median)
+0.4%
higher in 132 of 236
After 1 month (median)
−0.8%
higher in 112 of 235
After 3 months (median)
+1.3%
higher in 123 of 234
After 12 months (median)
−6.1%
higher in 88 of 219
Where things stand: The most recent fall of 5% or more in our daily closes was on October 30, 2026 (fell 5.9% to $49.14). Today silver is down 5.79%: if it closes there, today becomes the newest case.
Silver After 5% One-Day Drops: Summary
Move from the close on the day of the big move (the big day itself is not counted). "All days" is every trading day since 1968, for comparison.
| 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 3 months | 6 months | 12 months | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cases | 236 | 236 | 235 | 234 | 229 | 219 |
| Median | +0.4% | +0.2% | −0.8% | +1.3% | −0.1% | −6.1% |
| Average | +0.3% | +0.4% | −0.8% | +0.7% | +2.7% | +2.1% |
| Higher in | 56% (132/236) | 51% (121/236) | 48% (112/235) | 53% (123/234) | 49% (113/229) | 40% (88/219) |
| Best | +24.4% Mar 18, 1980 | +31.3% Jan 8, 1980 | +63.2% Dec 29, 2025 | +119.8% Oct 4, 1979 | +203.2% Sep 7, 1979 | +425.4% Feb 9, 1979 |
| Worst | −18.6% Mar 26, 1980 | −41.0% Mar 11, 1980 | −49.2% Mar 10, 1980 | −67.4% Jan 22, 1980 | −63.1% Jan 17, 1980 | −65.6% Jan 17, 1980 |
| All days: median | 0.0% | +0.1% | 0.0% | +0.5% | +0.9% | +1.6% |
| All days: higher in | 49% | 51% | 50% | 52% | 52% | 52% |
Periods overlap when events are close together (for example a run of cuts six weeks apart), so the 6- and 12-month figures share much of the same price history.
Average path over the next 3 months
% from the close on the big day, average of all casesBreakdown
Median move and how often silver was higher, by type of case.
| Cases | n | 1 day | 1 month | 3 months | 12 months |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All 5% one-day drops | 237 | +0.4% 56% up | −0.8% 48% up | +1.3% 53% up | −6.1% 40% up |
| Falls of 5–10% | 201 | +0.4% 57% up | −0.8% 48% up | +1.6% 54% up | −3.6% 42% up |
| Falls of 10% or more | 36 | +0.1% 50% up | −0.8% 44% up | −1.4% 47% up | −14.5% 29% up |
| In an uptrend (above the 200-day average) | 148 | +0.1% 51% up | −2.6% 44% up | −0.5% 49% up | −5.9% 40% up |
| In a downtrend (below the 200-day average) | 88 | +0.9% 64% up | +1.8% 55% up | +3.9% 59% up | −6.5% 41% up |
| First big fall in more than a month | 84 | 0.0% 50% up | +1.2% 55% up | +2.4% 55% up | −1.1% 48% up |
| Within a month of another | 153 | +0.9% 59% up | −2.7% 43% up | +0.5% 51% up | −9.0% 36% up |
| Since 2000 | 111 | +0.4% 56% up | +1.5% 54% up | +4.1% 61% up | +12.1% 60% up |
| Since 2015 | 42 | +0.5% 66% up | +4.5% 68% up | +4.1% 67% up | +1.5% 54% up |
Every Case
5% one-day drops since 1968, newest first. Silver price is the close on the day of the move (US dollars per ounce).
| Date | Event | Silver at that close | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 3 months | 6 months | 12 months |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 30, 2026 | Fell 5.9% to $49.14 | $49.14 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Fell 6.1% to $55.55 | $55.55 | +2.3% | +3.4% | — | — | — | — |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Fell 5.4% to $64.28 | $64.28 | +0.4% | +1.8% | −5.6% | — | — | — |
| Jun 24, 2026 | Fell 6.4% to $58.05 | $58.05 | +0.5% | +3.5% | +1.0% | +10.9% | — | — |
| Jun 23, 2026 | Fell 5.4% to $62.02 | $62.02 | −6.4% | −4.1% | −6.8% | +6.3% | — | — |
| Jun 18, 2026 | Fell 6.3% to $66.26 | $66.26 | −1.1% | −10.6% | −11.2% | +0.5% | — | — |
| Jun 5, 2026 | Fell 6.6% to $68.94 | $68.94 | −0.8% | −1.6% | −15.6% | −4.2% | — | — |
| May 15, 2026 | Fell 9.1% to $77.16 | $77.16 | −0.1% | −1.6% | −9.4% | −14.3% | — | — |
| Mar 26, 2026 | Fell 6.5% to $67.67 | $67.67 | +2.8% | +7.5% | +10.8% | −12.5% | −5.1% | — |
| Mar 19, 2026 | Fell 8.2% to $70.90 | $70.90 | −2.2% | −4.6% | +12.8% | −6.6% | −6.1% | — |
| Mar 3, 2026 | Fell 6.1% to $82.92 | $82.92 | −0.3% | +7.4% | −8.5% | −9.2% | −22.1% | — |
| Feb 17, 2026 | Fell 5.7% to $73.45 | $73.45 | +5.5% | +19.1% | +5.2% | +4.9% | −12.9% | — |
| Feb 12, 2026 | Fell 9.8% to $75.55 | $75.55 | +3.1% | +8.9% | +6.2% | +12.4% | −14.0% | — |
| Feb 5, 2026 | Fell 9.1% to $76.53 | $76.53 | +0.3% | −1.3% | +9.8% | +4.1% | −17.2% | — |
| Jan 30, 2026 | Fell 31.3% to $78.29 Crash-size move | $78.29 | −1.9% | −2.0% | +5.9% | −3.0% | −26.3% | — |
| Jan 27, 2026 | Fell 8.3% to $105.52 | $105.52 | +7.2% | −21.3% | −17.6% | −30.6% | −45.2% | — |
| Dec 31, 2025 | Fell 9.4% to $70.13 | $70.13 | +0.6% | +6.5% | +9.5% | +3.7% | −11.7% | — |
| Dec 29, 2025 | Fell 8.7% to $69.86 | $69.86 | +10.8% | +15.3% | +63.2% | +6.9% | −14.0% | — |
| Oct 21, 2025 | Fell 7.2% to $47.45 | $47.45 | 0.0% | −0.7% | +7.0% | +102.3% | +59.0% | +15.4% |
| Oct 17, 2025 | Fell 6.0% to $49.86 | $49.86 | +2.5% | −3.0% | +1.5% | +88.9% | +53.2% | +15.7% |
| Apr 4, 2025 | Fell 8.6% to $29.12 | $29.12 | +1.4% | +9.3% | +13.7% | +25.8% | +63.5% | +146.7% |
| Apr 3, 2025 | Fell 7.7% to $31.84 | $31.84 | −8.6% | −3.7% | +1.1% | +15.5% | +44.5% | +128.2% |
| Jun 7, 2024 | Fell 6.1% to $29.34 | $29.34 | +1.5% | +0.2% | +4.7% | −3.6% | +6.3% | +24.6% |
| Apr 22, 2024 | Fell 5.5% to $27.21 | $27.21 | +0.4% | +0.6% | +17.1% | +7.1% | +24.5% | +23.2% |
| Feb 3, 2023 | Fell 5.1% to $22.33 | $22.33 | −0.7% | −1.3% | −10.2% | +15.3% | +3.6% | +0.3% |
| Jul 14, 2022 | Fell 5.1% to $18.17 | $18.17 | +2.1% | +2.9% | +13.8% | +3.9% | +31.3% | +36.7% |
| Jun 17, 2021 | Fell 7.0% to $25.84 | $25.84 | +0.4% | +0.8% | −2.8% | −12.0% | −16.8% | −15.4% |
| Feb 2, 2021 | Fell 10.3% to $26.38 Twice the threshold | $26.38 | +1.9% | +3.8% | −3.6% | +0.6% | −3.1% | −14.4% |
| Jan 8, 2021 | Fell 9.6% to $24.58 | $24.58 | +2.7% | +1.0% | +11.4% | +1.1% | +6.7% | −8.9% |
| Nov 9, 2020 | Fell 7.6% to $23.69 | $23.69 | +3.2% | +4.6% | +1.0% | +14.3% | +15.0% | +2.7% |
| Sep 23, 2020 | Fell 5.8% to $23.01 | $23.01 | +0.5% | +1.8% | +7.2% | +10.5% | +8.7% | −1.6% |
| Sep 21, 2020 | Fell 10.1% to $24.30 Twice the threshold | $24.30 | +0.6% | −3.2% | +2.6% | +6.8% | +3.7% | −7.1% |
| Aug 14, 2020 | Fell 5.9% to $26.07 | $26.07 | +6.1% | +2.5% | +4.9% | −6.8% | +4.8% | −8.8% |
| Aug 11, 2020 | Fell 11.0% to $26.04 Twice the threshold | $26.04 | −0.3% | +7.7% | +4.3% | −9.0% | +4.0% | −9.8% |
| Mar 18, 2020 | Fell 5.9% to $11.74 | $11.74 | +3.1% | +26.4% | +29.8% | +51.3% | +133.1% | +124.3% |
| Mar 16, 2020 | Fell 11.6% to $12.77 Twice the threshold | $12.77 | −2.4% | +3.5% | +20.9% | +36.1% | +113.2% | +103.4% |
| Mar 13, 2020 | Fell 9.4% to $14.46 | $14.46 | −11.6% | −14.6% | +11.2% | +20.8% | +85.0% | +81.6% |
| Feb 28, 2020 | Fell 7.2% to $16.39 | $16.39 | +1.8% | +5.0% | −14.1% | +12.5% | +64.8% | +62.6% |
| Dec 15, 2016 | Fell 5.2% to $15.94 | $15.94 | +0.9% | −1.2% | +7.7% | +8.5% | +5.5% | 0.0% |
| Nov 11, 2016 | Fell 6.6% to $17.35 | $17.35 | −2.6% | −4.6% | −1.7% | +3.4% | −6.8% | −1.6% |
| Oct 4, 2016 | Fell 5.4% to $17.78 | $17.78 | −0.3% | −2.1% | +3.7% | −8.5% | +2.6% | −3.5% |
| Jan 29, 2015 | Fell 5.9% to $16.90 | $16.90 | +1.9% | +2.1% | −1.8% | −1.9% | −13.3% | −17.2% |
| Nov 28, 2014 | Fell 6.3% to $15.56 | $15.56 | +7.3% | +4.5% | +4.6% | +6.7% | +7.0% | −8.3% |
| Jun 26, 2013 | Fell 5.6% to $18.67 | $18.67 | −0.3% | +4.7% | +6.7% | +16.1% | +3.9% | +13.0% |
| Jun 20, 2013 | Fell 6.4% to $20.24 | $20.24 | −1.8% | −8.1% | −4.1% | +8.5% | −0.7% | −2.1% |
| Apr 15, 2013 | Fell 14.1% to $23.54 Twice the threshold | $23.54 | −0.3% | +0.3% | −0.4% | −16.5% | −7.0% | −14.5% |
| Jan 4, 2013 | Fell 5.1% to $29.32 | $29.32 | +2.8% | +4.6% | +7.5% | −8.6% | −33.3% | −33.1% |
| Mar 1, 2012 | Fell 7.2% to $34.56 | $34.56 | +1.9% | −1.4% | −6.2% | −19.9% | −10.2% | −16.9% |
| Dec 29, 2011 | Fell 8.7% to $26.16 | $26.16 | +7.7% | +12.4% | +26.8% | +24.0% | +4.9% | +19.9% |
| Oct 5, 2011 | Fell 6.2% to $28.69 | $28.69 | +10.8% | +14.6% | +21.0% | +1.7% | +13.0% | +18.1% |
| Sep 28, 2011 | Fell 7.3% to $31.04 | $31.04 | −2.7% | −7.6% | +8.1% | −7.5% | +3.8% | +11.6% |
| Sep 26, 2011 | Fell 14.4% to $28.16 Twice the threshold | $28.16 | +19.0% | +10.3% | +13.6% | +4.0% | +12.9% | +22.6% |
| Sep 23, 2011 | Fell 13.1% to $32.90 Twice the threshold | $32.90 | −14.4% | −7.4% | −3.6% | −9.6% | −2.8% | +5.5% |
| Sep 22, 2011 | Fell 6.0% to $37.85 | $37.85 | −13.1% | −20.2% | −18.6% | −22.6% | −14.9% | −12.8% |
| Aug 25, 2011 | Fell 7.3% to $39.00 | $39.00 | +5.3% | +6.3% | −15.6% | −18.3% | −13.7% | −28.6% |
| Aug 5, 2011 | Fell 5.7% to $39.24 | $39.24 | +1.6% | −2.4% | +8.8% | −13.8% | −13.9% | −29.3% |
| Jun 13, 2011 | Fell 5.0% to $35.51 | $35.51 | −2.3% | +0.2% | −1.7% | +18.7% | −10.3% | −21.2% |
| Jun 3, 2011 | Fell 5.5% to $35.19 | $35.19 | +4.8% | +6.2% | −3.1% | +17.5% | −9.1% | −19.7% |
| May 16, 2011 | Fell 5.1% to $34.35 | $34.35 | −0.2% | +1.0% | +2.6% | +11.5% | +0.7% | −13.9% |
| May 12, 2011 | Fell 17.0% to $32.50 Crash-size move | $32.50 | +11.4% | +10.0% | +9.3% | +17.9% | +6.1% | −8.0% |
| May 6, 2011 | Fell 9.6% to $34.20 | $34.20 | +11.1% | +5.8% | +9.4% | +21.7% | −3.6% | −8.8% |
| May 5, 2011 | Fell 6.1% to $37.84 | $37.84 | −9.6% | −14.1% | −2.6% | +8.5% | −9.5% | −17.7% |
| May 4, 2011 | Fell 7.6% to $40.29 | $40.29 | −6.1% | −2.8% | −12.7% | −1.4% | −12.1% | −23.8% |
| May 3, 2011 | Fell 5.4% to $43.61 | $43.61 | −7.6% | −11.9% | −14.7% | −9.9% | −23.1% | −29.2% |
| May 2, 2011 | Fell 5.2% to $46.08 | $46.08 | −5.4% | −17.5% | −17.6% | −14.0% | −27.7% | −33.0% |
| Mar 15, 2011 | Fell 6.4% to $33.88 | $33.88 | +2.5% | +6.1% | +18.7% | +2.4% | +22.2% | −2.1% |
| May 5, 2010 | Fell 5.8% to $17.63 | $17.63 | +0.3% | +11.1% | +0.7% | +4.5% | +35.9% | +158.0% |
| Feb 5, 2010 | Fell 6.0% to $15.17 | $15.17 | −0.2% | +1.1% | +14.2% | +16.6% | +22.0% | +80.6% |
| Aug 17, 2009 | Fell 5.7% to $14.13 | $14.13 | −0.3% | +2.0% | +16.9% | +23.9% | +8.8% | +28.0% |
| Jun 15, 2009 | Fell 5.0% to $14.31 | $14.31 | −0.1% | −3.4% | −10.0% | +12.4% | +26.6% | +28.2% |
| Jun 8, 2009 | Fell 5.2% to $14.84 | $14.84 | +0.6% | −3.6% | −10.2% | +6.0% | +26.1% | +23.3% |
| Apr 17, 2009 | Fell 5.3% to $11.98 | $11.98 | +0.7% | +6.7% | +15.1% | +10.3% | +50.2% | +54.3% |
| Dec 19, 2008 | Fell 6.0% to $10.61 | $10.61 | +3.4% | +3.0% | +6.9% | +28.7% | +34.1% | +62.0% |
| Dec 2, 2008 | Fell 5.0% to $9.41 | $9.41 | +0.2% | +4.5% | +17.7% | +34.8% | +66.0% | +98.0% |
| Oct 31, 2008 | Fell 7.4% to $9.28 | $9.28 | +8.3% | +9.2% | +6.8% | +34.8% | +36.1% | +89.8% |
| Oct 23, 2008 | Fell 5.1% to $9.34 | $9.34 | −4.9% | +7.3% | −1.8% | +21.2% | +29.8% | +85.3% |
| Oct 16, 2008 | Fell 8.5% to $9.99 | $9.99 | −4.3% | −6.5% | −6.6% | +5.2% | +29.5% | +76.5% |
| Oct 13, 2008 | Fell 9.6% to $10.61 | $10.61 | +2.6% | −7.7% | −6.3% | +4.5% | +15.9% | +59.8% |
| Oct 3, 2008 | Fell 8.6% to $11.20 | $11.20 | +0.8% | +4.8% | −10.3% | −1.1% | +15.9% | +42.1% |
| Oct 1, 2008 | Fell 5.2% to $12.28 | $12.28 | −0.2% | −5.1% | −18.4% | −11.8% | +5.5% | +36.5% |
| Sep 19, 2008 | Fell 6.0% to $12.15 | $12.15 | +6.9% | +8.5% | −19.4% | −9.6% | +3.8% | +34.6% |
| Sep 11, 2008 | Fell 5.4% to $10.66 | $10.66 | +1.3% | +21.3% | +10.1% | −7.8% | +19.2% | +49.6% |
| Sep 10, 2008 | Fell 6.4% to $11.27 | $11.27 | −5.4% | −4.4% | +3.3% | −13.7% | +18.5% | +39.6% |
| Aug 15, 2008 | Fell 13.7% to $12.82 Twice the threshold | $12.82 | +1.5% | +6.2% | −15.4% | −24.7% | +4.4% | +12.9% |
| Aug 12, 2008 | Fell 5.8% to $14.45 | $14.45 | +1.6% | −10.0% | −22.0% | −29.9% | −10.8% | +1.5% |
| Aug 8, 2008 | Fell 5.0% to $15.76 | $15.76 | −2.7% | −18.7% | −21.4% | −34.8% | −21.3% | −9.3% |
| Jul 23, 2008 | Fell 5.4% to $17.59 | $17.59 | −0.4% | −2.7% | −22.7% | −44.3% | −36.6% | −24.9% |
| Apr 1, 2008 | Fell 6.9% to $16.74 | $16.74 | +0.9% | +7.5% | −1.6% | +5.4% | −20.3% | −19.3% |
| Mar 20, 2008 | Fell 11.8% to $17.53 Twice the threshold | $17.53 | −2.6% | +4.7% | +1.9% | −1.8% | −37.9% | −25.2% |
| Aug 17, 2007 | Fell 5.5% to $11.69 | $11.69 | +2.2% | +0.1% | +7.7% | +28.1% | +45.3% | +31.2% |
| Mar 5, 2007 | Fell 6.8% to $12.61 | $12.61 | +2.6% | +2.9% | +5.3% | +8.4% | −5.9% | +43.7% |
| Mar 2, 2007 | Fell 5.3% to $13.53 | $13.53 | −6.8% | −3.4% | −1.4% | 0.0% | −12.8% | +33.5% |
| Dec 18, 2006 | Fell 5.5% to $12.97 | $12.97 | −3.9% | −2.8% | −1.0% | +1.5% | +2.6% | +12.7% |
| Sep 15, 2006 | Fell 5.7% to $10.70 | $10.70 | +2.5% | +5.4% | +9.5% | +29.0% | +18.2% | +17.4% |
| Sep 8, 2006 | Fell 5.9% to $12.29 | $12.29 | −4.3% | −12.9% | −7.7% | +11.3% | +4.9% | −1.5% |
| Jun 14, 2006 | Fell 7.2% to $9.72 | $9.72 | +4.4% | +5.7% | +19.5% | +21.0% | +40.6% | +40.4% |
| Jun 1, 2006 | Fell 8.2% to $12.05 | $12.05 | +0.8% | −4.1% | −11.2% | +0.7% | +11.0% | +8.2% |
| May 19, 2006 | Fell 5.3% to $12.43 | $12.43 | −2.2% | +2.2% | −18.3% | −1.2% | +3.4% | +6.1% |
| May 18, 2006 | Fell 5.1% to $13.12 | $13.12 | −5.3% | −4.2% | −24.6% | −7.4% | −2.0% | −0.6% |
| May 15, 2006 | Fell 11.3% to $13.25 Twice the threshold | $13.25 | −0.2% | −8.2% | −26.6% | −7.3% | −4.8% | +1.7% |
| May 4, 2006 | Fell 5.1% to $13.69 | $13.69 | +2.8% | +5.4% | −9.6% | −14.2% | −11.4% | −2.5% |
| Apr 21, 2006 | Fell 14.8% to $12.19 Twice the threshold | $12.19 | +4.8% | +3.0% | −0.2% | −9.1% | −2.8% | +15.6% |
| Dec 13, 2005 | Fell 5.3% to $8.74 | $8.74 | −4.0% | −2.2% | +3.1% | +15.2% | +19.8% | +56.5% |
| Jan 3, 2005 | Fell 5.0% to $6.48 | $6.48 | −1.3% | −0.1% | +3.4% | +9.8% | +9.6% | +31.2% |
| Dec 9, 2004 | Fell 7.8% to $6.90 | $6.90 | −2.8% | −1.6% | −6.4% | +7.2% | +9.1% | +19.0% |
| Sep 8, 2004 | Fell 5.2% to $6.18 | $6.18 | −0.8% | +0.2% | +15.4% | +29.4% | +18.0% | +9.4% |
| May 10, 2004 | Fell 5.2% to $5.50 | $5.50 | +3.1% | +5.6% | +4.4% | +21.5% | +28.2% | +26.9% |
| Apr 29, 2004 | Fell 10.6% to $5.57 Twice the threshold | $5.57 | +6.8% | +8.3% | +10.8% | +11.1% | +33.6% | +29.4% |
| Apr 21, 2004 | Fell 8.8% to $6.42 | $6.42 | −4.4% | −3.0% | −9.0% | +2.5% | +10.0% | +12.8% |
| Apr 14, 2004 | Fell 8.9% to $7.16 | $7.16 | −4.2% | −10.3% | −22.5% | −10.9% | −0.1% | −3.1% |
| Feb 26, 2004 | Fell 5.9% to $6.36 | $6.36 | +3.5% | +7.2% | +17.8% | −3.9% | +4.6% | +12.1% |
| May 13, 1998 | Fell 5.7% to $5.46 | $5.46 | +1.8% | −4.6% | −5.3% | −4.8% | −8.4% | −1.1% |
| Feb 18, 1998 | Fell 6.9% to $6.72 | $6.72 | −0.4% | −5.7% | −12.9% | −20.5% | −24.1% | −19.8% |
| Feb 9, 1998 | Fell 7.9% to $7.19 | $7.19 | −0.7% | −1.4% | −14.9% | −19.5% | −26.4% | −22.4% |
| Jan 9, 1998 | Fell 5.3% to $5.74 | $5.74 | −3.7% | +2.6% | +25.3% | +12.5% | −7.7% | −9.2% |
| Jul 7, 1997 | Fell 5.7% to $4.28 | $4.28 | +1.6% | 0.0% | +1.2% | +23.6% | +38.8% | +24.8% |
| May 9, 1995 | Fell 9.2% to $5.45 | $5.45 | −0.9% | −0.7% | −2.6% | −4.6% | −3.3% | +0.6% |
| Sep 8, 1993 | Fell 5.5% to $4.26 | $4.26 | −0.3% | −5.1% | +1.8% | +13.7% | +21.7% | +29.5% |
| Aug 6, 1993 | Fell 6.8% to $4.82 | $4.82 | −3.0% | −4.7% | −6.6% | −9.1% | +13.2% | +7.4% |
| Jun 2, 1993 | Fell 5.4% to $4.37 | $4.37 | +0.5% | +0.1% | +4.2% | +10.9% | +7.0% | +27.0% |
| Oct 11, 1990 | Fell 5.2% to $4.39 | $4.39 | −3.1% | −3.1% | −3.2% | −5.3% | −8.4% | −6.1% |
| May 22, 1989 | Fell 5.2% to $5.09 | $5.09 | +0.3% | +2.6% | +3.0% | +3.0% | +8.1% | +0.9% |
| Jul 26, 1988 | Fell 7.8% to $6.99 | $6.99 | −0.8% | −2.3% | −3.7% | −11.0% | −11.1% | −25.4% |
| Nov 5, 1987 | Fell 6.8% to $6.29 | $6.29 | +1.4% | +5.7% | +8.8% | +1.6% | +1.4% | +3.5% |
| Oct 20, 1987 | Fell 5.7% to $7.84 | $7.84 | −4.2% | −6.2% | −15.0% | −14.1% | −17.4% | −18.1% |
| Jun 22, 1987 | Fell 6.7% to $7.00 | $7.00 | −3.4% | −0.7% | +9.6% | +9.0% | −3.3% | +2.6% |
| Jun 15, 1987 | Fell 5.2% to $7.50 | $7.50 | +2.3% | −6.7% | +2.6% | +4.3% | −10.3% | −6.9% |
| May 27, 1987 | Fell 9.1% to $7.30 | $7.30 | +2.6% | +5.1% | −6.4% | +4.4% | −9.1% | −9.0% |
| May 26, 1987 | Fell 10.7% to $8.03 Twice the threshold | $8.03 | −9.1% | −5.6% | −13.4% | −5.1% | −17.8% | −16.6% |
| May 6, 1987 | Fell 8.5% to $8.19 | $8.19 | −1.2% | +6.1% | −3.8% | +6.6% | −15.1% | −22.5% |
| Apr 28, 1987 | Fell 22.7% to $8.45 Crash-size move | $8.45 | −2.3% | −3.0% | −9.0% | −8.4% | −13.0% | −24.6% |
| Apr 1, 1986 | Fell 7.7% to $5.19 | $5.19 | −1.6% | +2.8% | −1.5% | −1.7% | +8.8% | +14.9% |
| May 21, 1985 | Fell 5.2% to $6.22 | $6.22 | −0.2% | −3.4% | +1.2% | +2.8% | −1.6% | −21.9% |
| Mar 21, 1985 | Fell 5.4% to $6.11 | $6.11 | +4.6% | +7.5% | +4.0% | 0.0% | −1.8% | −6.5% |
| Feb 25, 1985 | Fell 9.2% to $5.45 | $5.45 | +2.4% | +3.5% | +15.0% | +10.1% | +15.7% | +8.4% |
| May 8, 1984 | Fell 5.1% to $8.59 | $8.59 | +0.8% | +2.9% | +7.5% | −10.3% | −13.6% | −27.2% |
| Jan 9, 1984 | Fell 6.1% to $7.90 | $7.90 | +2.7% | +2.0% | +9.3% | +18.6% | −8.3% | −23.1% |
| Jan 4, 1984 | Fell 5.4% to $8.48 | $8.48 | −0.5% | −5.4% | +4.1% | +14.9% | −3.8% | −29.0% |
| Dec 9, 1983 | Fell 5.7% to $9.25 | $9.25 | +2.4% | −4.3% | −13.8% | +4.8% | −5.9% | −24.5% |
| Nov 17, 1983 | Fell 5.0% to $8.59 | $8.59 | +0.3% | −1.3% | +3.1% | +5.3% | +6.6% | −11.5% |
| Oct 27, 1983 | Fell 9.4% to $8.59 | $8.59 | +4.8% | +1.2% | −0.4% | −5.4% | +5.9% | −14.9% |
| Oct 5, 1983 | Fell 6.5% to $9.74 | $9.74 | +6.3% | +4.7% | −10.7% | −13.4% | −4.0% | −21.9% |
| Oct 3, 1983 | Fell 7.5% to $10.40 | $10.40 | +0.2% | +0.3% | −19.5% | −13.8% | −7.2% | −28.3% |
| Jun 28, 1983 | Fell 5.5% to $11.59 | $11.59 | +0.4% | −0.9% | +6.7% | +4.2% | −24.6% | −27.8% |
| Jun 7, 1983 | Fell 5.4% to $11.09 | $11.09 | +0.1% | +5.6% | +3.0% | +11.3% | −13.6% | −15.7% |
| Jun 1, 1983 | Fell 5.9% to $12.75 | $12.75 | −3.9% | −12.9% | −9.0% | −3.7% | −32.9% | −28.1% |
| Mar 1, 1983 | Fell 8.7% to $10.68 | $10.68 | +3.0% | −0.8% | −0.3% | +14.7% | +12.3% | −7.6% |
| Feb 28, 1983 | Fell 11.7% to $11.70 Twice the threshold | $11.70 | −8.7% | −10.4% | −11.3% | +8.9% | +4.9% | −18.6% |
| Feb 23, 1983 | Fell 7.6% to $13.31 | $13.31 | +1.7% | −17.3% | −20.5% | +0.4% | −5.9% | −29.2% |
| Sep 10, 1982 | Fell 6.2% to $8.75 | $8.75 | +0.3% | +2.6% | +4.0% | +23.2% | +25.5% | +39.9% |
| Sep 8, 1982 | Fell 6.1% to $8.88 | $8.88 | +5.1% | 0.0% | −4.6% | +16.7% | +19.3% | +36.8% |
| Aug 31, 1982 | Fell 6.3% to $7.73 | $7.73 | −0.5% | +22.3% | +9.2% | +19.2% | +51.4% | +58.7% |
| Jul 7, 1982 | Fell 5.6% to $5.53 | $5.53 | +3.7% | +19.7% | +25.4% | +44.2% | +100.7% | +106.5% |
| Jun 15, 1982 | Fell 5.2% to $5.51 | $5.51 | −1.2% | −9.1% | +20.1% | +59.3% | +89.7% | +112.6% |
| Sep 28, 1981 | Fell 8.1% to $8.77 | $8.77 | +2.9% | +7.7% | +1.9% | −5.4% | −20.1% | −5.8% |
| Sep 18, 1981 | Fell 9.0% to $10.06 | $10.06 | +2.0% | −5.2% | −6.9% | −13.5% | −30.4% | −13.7% |
| Aug 25, 1981 | Fell 8.3% to $8.70 | $8.70 | +1.4% | +8.0% | +12.5% | −7.7% | −9.9% | −9.7% |
| Jun 29, 1981 | Fell 6.7% to $8.59 | $8.59 | −3.3% | −4.5% | −2.8% | +2.1% | −3.4% | −33.3% |
| Jun 26, 1981 | Fell 7.1% to $9.20 | $9.20 | −6.7% | −8.2% | −7.5% | +3.7% | −9.8% | −41.7% |
| Mar 5, 1981 | Fell 5.9% to $11.26 | $11.26 | +2.6% | +4.3% | +8.2% | −10.3% | −12.5% | −34.8% |
| Mar 2, 1981 | Fell 7.4% to $11.60 | $11.60 | −0.3% | +1.8% | +6.3% | −9.5% | −19.0% | −31.7% |
| Jan 26, 1981 | Fell 5.7% to $13.40 | $13.40 | +0.9% | −4.1% | −2.8% | −16.2% | −36.5% | −41.9% |
| Jan 23, 1981 | Fell 5.0% to $14.21 | $14.21 | −5.7% | −7.5% | −8.5% | −19.8% | −40.5% | −45.6% |
| Jan 12, 1981 | Fell 5.2% to $14.82 | $14.82 | +1.0% | +0.3% | −6.4% | −21.6% | −39.1% | −45.4% |
| Dec 16, 1980 | Fell 9.7% to $14.45 | $14.45 | +4.6% | +11.8% | +3.6% | −10.2% | −30.3% | −38.9% |
| Dec 11, 1980 | Fell 7.7% to $14.88 | $14.88 | −3.9% | +4.8% | +1.8% | −16.2% | −32.4% | −41.5% |
| Dec 10, 1980 | Fell 6.3% to $16.12 | $16.12 | −7.7% | −6.2% | −6.9% | −24.6% | −37.0% | −47.2% |
| Nov 25, 1980 | Fell 5.6% to $17.94 | $17.94 | +3.5% | +3.8% | −8.0% | −29.7% | −40.5% | −54.3% |
| Nov 11, 1980 | Fell 5.1% to $17.60 | $17.60 | +3.0% | +4.6% | −8.4% | −26.1% | −38.0% | −51.3% |
| Nov 7, 1980 | Fell 7.2% to $17.50 | $17.50 | +6.0% | +5.9% | −0.4% | −20.8% | −37.0% | −49.2% |
| Nov 6, 1980 | Fell 6.2% to $18.85 | $18.85 | −7.2% | −2.8% | −4.2% | −26.3% | −41.1% | −51.7% |
| Oct 3, 1980 | Fell 6.1% to $19.91 | $19.91 | +3.0% | +7.8% | −5.4% | −18.1% | −38.8% | −54.6% |
| Sep 25, 1980 | Fell 9.1% to $21.40 | $21.40 | +3.9% | −0.9% | −11.5% | −24.5% | −39.8% | −59.0% |
| Sep 15, 1980 | Fell 8.9% to $19.73 | $19.73 | +0.3% | +16.2% | +4.8% | −24.6% | −36.8% | −44.7% |
| Jun 10, 1980 | Fell 12.6% to $15.60 Twice the threshold | $15.60 | −0.9% | −0.6% | +9.0% | +16.0% | +19.4% | −34.6% |
| May 29, 1980 | Fell 6.5% to $13.07 | $13.07 | +4.8% | +22.4% | +24.4% | +22.9% | +45.4% | −19.0% |
| May 22, 1980 | Fell 9.3% to $10.89 | $10.89 | +4.4% | +25.8% | +42.0% | +46.3% | +69.0% | −2.2% |
| May 7, 1980 | Fell 5.2% to $12.70 | $12.70 | +4.2% | +2.9% | +34.1% | +26.5% | +48.3% | −14.1% |
| May 1, 1980 | Fell 13.3% to $12.00 Twice the threshold | $12.00 | +9.2% | +8.4% | +18.1% | +31.5% | +59.4% | −7.2% |
| Apr 28, 1980 | Fell 11.4% to $13.75 Twice the threshold | $13.75 | +0.9% | −2.5% | −4.9% | +19.1% | +37.7% | −18.7% |
| Apr 15, 1980 | Fell 8.1% to $14.55 | $14.55 | +1.4% | −6.8% | −12.2% | +6.5% | +46.1% | −24.7% |
| Apr 10, 1980 | Fell 11.7% to $15.54 Twice the threshold | $15.54 | +0.5% | −5.1% | −18.0% | +6.1% | +33.2% | −23.0% |
| Apr 2, 1980 | Fell 11.8% to $14.99 Twice the threshold | $14.99 | −1.6% | +4.2% | −10.6% | +12.7% | +41.4% | −18.6% |
| Mar 28, 1980 | Fell 12.6% to $13.99 Twice the threshold | $13.99 | −3.5% | +18.8% | −1.1% | +22.2% | +52.3% | −10.5% |
| Mar 27, 1980 | Fell 18.6% to $16.00 Crash-size move | $16.00 | −12.6% | −7.8% | −13.3% | +4.7% | +39.0% | −17.8% |
| Mar 26, 1980 | Fell 7.6% to $19.65 | $19.65 | −18.6% | −23.7% | −30.0% | −17.3% | +8.9% | −34.4% |
| Mar 25, 1980 | Fell 7.8% to $21.26 | $21.26 | −7.6% | −20.1% | −27.0% | −24.3% | +10.8% | −38.5% |
| Mar 21, 1980 | Fell 6.9% to $21.03 | $21.03 | +9.6% | −33.5% | −33.4% | −26.4% | +9.0% | −36.7% |
| Mar 18, 1980 | Fell 12.7% to $16.60 Twice the threshold | $16.60 | +24.4% | +28.0% | −12.2% | −6.6% | +31.0% | −22.6% |
| Mar 17, 1980 | Fell 17.4% to $19.01 Crash-size move | $19.01 | −12.7% | +21.3% | −22.4% | −17.0% | +4.1% | −34.7% |
| Mar 14, 1980 | Fell 14.8% to $23.01 Twice the threshold | $23.01 | −17.4% | −8.6% | −35.9% | −32.6% | −14.3% | −45.8% |
| Mar 13, 1980 | Fell 8.9% to $27.00 | $27.00 | −14.8% | −16.3% | −46.1% | −40.7% | −19.8% | −55.0% |
| Mar 11, 1980 | Fell 8.1% to $28.15 | $28.15 | +5.3% | −41.0% | −44.5% | −45.6% | −30.0% | −58.3% |
| Mar 10, 1980 | Fell 5.6% to $30.62 | $30.62 | −8.1% | −37.9% | −49.2% | −49.5% | −38.8% | −60.4% |
| Mar 7, 1980 | Fell 8.7% to $32.45 | $32.45 | −5.6% | −29.1% | −45.8% | −51.9% | −44.2% | −63.6% |
| Feb 20, 1980 | Fell 15.1% to $30.00 Crash-size move | $30.00 | +11.7% | +10.0% | −24.7% | −63.7% | −46.9% | −56.7% |
| Jan 31, 1980 | Fell 5.5% to $35.28 | $35.28 | +0.1% | +8.6% | +0.7% | −66.0% | −55.3% | −62.7% |
| Jan 28, 1980 | Fell 7.8% to $35.30 | $35.30 | +4.8% | −2.3% | −5.1% | −61.0% | −53.6% | −61.7% |
| Jan 25, 1980 | Fell 7.7% to $38.30 | $38.30 | −7.8% | −7.8% | −14.4% | −59.5% | −56.5% | −65.0% |
| Jan 23, 1980 | Fell 7.4% to $38.48 | $38.48 | +7.9% | −2.9% | −12.9% | −63.6% | −58.5% | −61.1% |
| Jan 22, 1980 | Fell 15.2% to $41.55 Crash-size move | $41.55 | −7.4% | −11.0% | −27.8% | −67.4% | −62.8% | −63.0% |
| Jan 17, 1980 | Fell 9.7% to $43.35 | $43.35 | +14.1% | −4.3% | −16.7% | −66.0% | −63.1% | −65.6% |
| Jan 8, 1980 | Fell 14.1% to $33.52 Twice the threshold | $33.52 | −1.1% | +31.3% | +16.7% | −50.4% | −47.9% | −52.9% |
| Jan 4, 1980 | Fell 11.5% to $32.75 Twice the threshold | $32.75 | +19.1% | +11.8% | +5.3% | −54.2% | −48.4% | −51.8% |
| Jan 3, 1980 | Fell 7.4% to $37.00 | $37.00 | −11.5% | −8.2% | −4.6% | −54.1% | −54.7% | −58.1% |
| Oct 4, 1979 | Fell 12.4% to $14.90 Twice the threshold | $14.90 | +2.7% | +12.4% | +7.5% | +119.8% | +0.6% | +42.3% |
| Oct 3, 1979 | Fell 6.1% to $17.00 | $17.00 | −12.4% | −0.6% | −4.0% | +117.6% | −0.1% | +28.0% |
| Sep 25, 1979 | Fell 7.8% to $14.75 | $14.75 | −0.2% | +22.7% | +16.7% | +58.9% | +56.3% | +57.6% |
| Sep 21, 1979 | Fell 14.9% to $14.04 Twice the threshold | $14.04 | +14.0% | +15.7% | +24.3% | +70.0% | +61.0% | +49.2% |
| Sep 19, 1979 | Fell 15.4% to $15.48 Crash-size move | $15.48 | +6.6% | −4.9% | +4.7% | +39.5% | +7.2% | +40.5% |
| Sep 7, 1979 | Fell 6.6% to $11.72 | $11.72 | +4.1% | +10.9% | +30.5% | +62.9% | +203.2% | +45.3% |
| Feb 9, 1979 | Fell 6.8% to $7.00 | $7.00 | +5.2% | +4.9% | +3.7% | +18.0% | +30.4% | +425.4% |
| Jul 20, 1976 | Fell 5.9% to $4.44 | $4.44 | +2.3% | +2.2% | −5.5% | −5.3% | −1.3% | +3.2% |
| Dec 31, 1974 | Fell 5.9% to $4.47 | $4.47 | −0.8% | −5.3% | −3.5% | −3.1% | +2.5% | −5.1% |
| Dec 3, 1974 | Fell 6.1% to $4.33 | $4.33 | −3.3% | −3.7% | −2.4% | +0.3% | +2.2% | −4.8% |
| Nov 22, 1974 | Fell 6.6% to $4.21 | $4.21 | +4.0% | +5.8% | +8.2% | +8.8% | +11.9% | +2.6% |
| Nov 19, 1974 | Fell 6.6% to $4.38 | $4.38 | −0.4% | +0.3% | +1.7% | +5.2% | +4.1% | −1.1% |
| Sep 4, 1974 | Fell 5.3% to $4.00 | $4.00 | +1.4% | −1.6% | +17.0% | +15.2% | +12.0% | +10.4% |
| Aug 15, 1974 | Fell 5.6% to $4.35 | $4.35 | +1.4% | +2.1% | −9.0% | +13.2% | +1.8% | +16.4% |
| Aug 2, 1974 | Fell 5.9% to $4.66 | $4.66 | −3.6% | −4.0% | −9.2% | +4.3% | −10.9% | +7.4% |
| Jul 11, 1974 | Fell 7.0% to $3.93 | $3.93 | −3.5% | +6.1% | +13.9% | +17.9% | +7.5% | +18.2% |
| Jul 2, 1974 | Fell 7.8% to $4.32 | $4.32 | −3.0% | +0.9% | +10.9% | −1.7% | +10.0% | +5.8% |
| Jun 12, 1974 | Fell 6.0% to $4.79 | $4.79 | +5.3% | −0.3% | −18.1% | −14.4% | −11.0% | −4.5% |
| May 29, 1974 | Fell 5.1% to $4.62 | $4.62 | +10.1% | +8.8% | −2.9% | −5.2% | −8.8% | +2.0% |
| May 28, 1974 | Fell 6.7% to $4.87 | $4.87 | −5.1% | −3.5% | −6.0% | −9.6% | −7.4% | −3.0% |
| May 23, 1974 | Fell 8.2% to $4.98 | $4.98 | +4.7% | −1.3% | −5.1% | −13.5% | −12.1% | −8.5% |
| May 15, 1974 | Fell 5.9% to $5.66 | $5.66 | +1.9% | −4.1% | −11.4% | −22.8% | −10.6% | −19.7% |
| Apr 11, 1974 | Fell 8.1% to $4.34 | $4.34 | +5.5% | +17.9% | +38.6% | −12.8% | +14.5% | −3.7% |
| Apr 8, 1974 | Fell 12.3% to $4.41 Twice the threshold | $4.41 | +7.6% | −0.4% | +23.6% | −1.1% | +9.8% | −5.9% |
| Mar 26, 1974 | Fell 7.3% to $5.19 | $5.19 | −0.4% | −0.8% | +4.6% | −11.9% | −22.3% | −16.9% |
| Mar 11, 1974 | Fell 7.4% to $5.02 | $5.02 | +4.1% | +3.0% | −5.5% | +1.6% | −18.9% | −13.8% |
| Mar 5, 1974 | Fell 7.5% to $5.21 | $5.21 | −3.7% | +0.3% | −0.8% | −3.5% | −18.8% | −13.6% |
| Feb 28, 1974 | Fell 12.0% to $5.69 Twice the threshold | $5.69 | +0.9% | −6.9% | −5.9% | −13.5% | −24.9% | −21.0% |
| Feb 13, 1974 | Fell 6.4% to $5.19 | $5.19 | +1.7% | +1.7% | +4.0% | +9.2% | −15.7% | −18.7% |
| Jun 6, 1973 | Fell 6.7% to $2.55 | $2.55 | −0.3% | −1.6% | +5.8% | +2.5% | +14.6% | +96.8% |
| Jun 17, 1969 | Fell 5.1% to $1.59 | $1.59 | −0.9% | −0.6% | +4.8% | +11.8% | +10.9% | +2.3% |
| Nov 26, 1968 | Fell 5.6% to $1.99 | $1.99 | −3.4% | −2.1% | −2.6% | −9.5% | −10.9% | −4.6% |
Why 5% one-day drops matter for silver
Sharp one-day falls in silver usually follow a surprise — a strong jobs report or inflation figure, a jump in the dollar or real yields, a hawkish Fed, forced selling when other markets crash, or margin increases on futures exchanges — or come after a fast run-up. Whether silver then recovers has depended on whether the cause was a one-off shock or the start of a change in trend.
These are historical figures, not a forecast: past reactions don't predict future prices, and each case happened in a different economy. Not financial advice.
FAQ
What happens to silver after it falls 5% in a day?
Since 1968, silver was higher 3 months after a one-day fall of 5% or more in 123 of 234 cases (53%), with a median move of +1.3% and an average of +0.7%. Over all 3-month periods since 1968, it rose 52% of the time, with a median of +0.5%. The next day it was higher in 132 of 236 cases (median +0.4%).
Does silver always go up after a 5% one-day drop?
No. Three months later it was lower in 111 of 234 cases; the worst was −67.4% after January 22, 1980 and the best +119.8% after October 4, 1979. Other forces, such as the dollar, real yields, inflation, crises and central-bank buying, often matter more than the event itself.
What did silver do after the most recent case?
After silver fell 5.9% to $49.14 on October 30, 2026, silver moved 0.0% by the next day. Longer periods will appear here once they have passed.
How are these figures calculated?
Each move runs from silver's close on the day of the big move to its close 1, 5, 21, 63, 126 and 252 trading days later (1 day, 1 week and 1, 3, 6 and 12 months), so the big day itself is not counted. A big day is a close-to-close move of 5% or more in the daily closing price. Big days often come in clusters, so many cases share the same weeks; the breakdown separates the first big day in a month from the ones that followed.
More Patterns
After Fed rate cutsAfter Fed rate hikesAfter the first Fed cutAfter the last Fed hikeWhen the Fed holds ratesAfter a record highAfter a 5% one-day riseAfter US electionsAfter presidential electionsAfter midterm elections Silver price history
Sources: Silver prices: the London price from 1968 and this site's daily US-dollar closes (COMEX futures) for recent years. Calculated by Corgano; data through October 30, 2026.